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Ligue 1
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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 7, 2024 at 12pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Metz logo

Brest
4 - 3
Metz

Chardonnet (12'), Doumbia (31'), Mounie (38'), Satriano (60')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Traore (6'), Mikautadze (74', 80')
Udol (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Metz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Last Game: Lorient 0-1 Brest
Sunday, March 31 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Metz

All competitions
Last Game: Metz 2-5 Monaco
Saturday, March 30 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 1-0 Metz

 Metz have won on their previous two visits here, scoring six goals in the process, but with Brest's defence currently the toughest to breach in all of France, a repeat scenario looks unlikely. Going eight games unbeaten at home has seen Brest take 18 points, and against a lowly Metz, an additional three are to be expected, with another clean sheet to boot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 22.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawMetz
52.65% (-0.129 -0.13) 25.21% (0.035 0.04) 22.13% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 48.07% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.91% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)54.08% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.49% (-0.038 -0.04)75.51% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.45% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)20.54% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.94% (-0.113 -0.11)53.05% (0.109 0.11)
Metz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.5% (0.061 0.06)39.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.81% (0.056000000000001 0.06)76.18% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Brest 52.65%
    Metz 22.13%
    Draw 25.2%
BrestDrawMetz
1-0 @ 12.84%
2-0 @ 10.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.36% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.98% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.31% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
4-0 @ 2.12% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.97% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.92% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 52.65%
1-1 @ 11.92% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.11% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.39% (0.0039999999999996 0)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 25.2%
0-1 @ 7.54% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.54% (0.017 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.5% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.72% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.36% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.08% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.4%
Total : 22.13%

How you voted: Brest vs Metz

Brest
77.1%
Draw
20.0%
Metz
2.9%
35
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 15
Metz
0-1
Brest

Herelle (40'), Elisor (42'), Jallow (59')
Le Douaron (75')
Lala (2'), Lees-Melou (14')
> Preview
Apr 24, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 34
Metz
0-1
Brest

N'Doram (14'), Jemerson (35'), Kouyate (37'), Delaine (74')
Jemerson (78'), Oukidja (80')
Belaili (27')
> Preview
Sep 26, 2021 2pm
Gameweek 8
Brest
1-2
Metz
Faivre (68' pen.)
Pierre-Gabriel (46'), Mbock (71'), Chardonnet (88')
De Preville (26'), Centonze (74')
Kouyate (40'), Centonze (82')
> Preview
Jan 31, 2021 2pm
Gameweek 22
Brest
2-4
Metz
Honorat (33'), Cardona (48')
Perraud (31')
Boulaya (36'), Sarr (74'), Ndiaga Yade (81'), Goncalves (88' pen.)
Ndiaga Yade (89'), Fofana (90+3'), Boulaya (90+3')
> Preview
Nov 29, 2020 2pm
Gameweek 12
Metz
0-2
Brest

Oukidja (32'), Centonze (66')
Cardona (12'), Boye (64' og.)
Cardona (54')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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