Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4

Sep 3, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
1 - 0
Montpellier

Yazici (2')
Gomes (50'), Alexsandro (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Der Zakarian (56'), Omeragic (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Rijeka 1-1 Lille
Thursday, August 31 at 7.15pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 1-3 Reims
Sunday, August 27 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

We said: Lille 1-0 Montpellier HSC

Lille will have restored some confidence after advancing to the group stage of the Conference League in the week, and they should have enough quality to continue their unbeaten streak on home soil. Montpellier were big winners at Lyon in their first Ligue 1 outing of the term, but we expect them to fall short at Decathlon Arena on Sunday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 63.74%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 16.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.17%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lille.

Result
Lille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
63.74% ( -1.16)	19.74% ( 0.44)	16.52% ( 0.72)

Both teams to score 56.01% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.2% (

-0.63)

38.8% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.89% (

-0.67)

61.11% (

0.67)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.45% (

-0.49)

11.55% (

0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.52% (

-1.07)

36.48% (

1.07)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.33% (

0.49)

36.67% (

-0.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.54% (

0.49)

73.46% (

-0.49)

Score Analysis

Lille 63.74%

Montpellier HSC 16.52%

Draw 19.74%

Lille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.87% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.12% Total : 63.74%	1-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 19.74%	1-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.34% Total : 16.52%