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Le Havre
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Lille
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Montpellier
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Saint-Etienne
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Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4
Sep 3, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Montpellier

Lille
1 - 0
Montpellier

Yazici (2')
Gomes (50'), Alexsandro (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Der Zakarian (56'), Omeragic (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rijeka 1-1 Lille
Thursday, August 31 at 7.15pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Montpellier 1-3 Reims
Sunday, August 27 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 1-0 Montpellier HSC

Lille will have restored some confidence after advancing to the group stage of the Conference League in the week, and they should have enough quality to continue their unbeaten streak on home soil. Montpellier were big winners at Lyon in their first Ligue 1 outing of the term, but we expect them to fall short at Decathlon Arena on Sunday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 63.74%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 16.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 1-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.17%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lille.

Result
LilleDrawMontpellier HSC
63.74% (-1.16 -1.16) 19.74% (0.437 0.44) 16.52% (0.723 0.72)
Both teams to score 56.01% (0.127 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.2% (-0.634 -0.63)38.8% (0.634 0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.89% (-0.671 -0.67)61.11% (0.672 0.67)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.45% (-0.492 -0.49)11.55% (0.492 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.52% (-1.072 -1.07)36.48% (1.071 1.07)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.33% (0.494 0.49)36.67% (-0.494 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.54% (0.492 0.49)73.46% (-0.491 -0.49)
Score Analysis
    Lille 63.74%
    Montpellier HSC 16.52%
    Draw 19.74%
LilleDrawMontpellier HSC
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.036 0.04)
2-0 @ 9.87% (-0.097 -0.1)
1-0 @ 9.14% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
3-1 @ 7.12% (-0.117 -0.12)
3-0 @ 7.1% (-0.214 -0.21)
4-1 @ 3.84% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-0 @ 3.83% (-0.195 -0.2)
3-2 @ 3.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.93% (-0.045 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.66% (-0.096 -0.1)
5-0 @ 1.65% (-0.119 -0.12)
Other @ 4.12%
Total : 63.74%
1-1 @ 9.17% (0.214 0.21)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.084 0.08)
0-0 @ 4.24% (0.126 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.19% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 19.74%
1-2 @ 4.6% (0.167 0.17)
0-1 @ 4.25% (0.181 0.18)
0-2 @ 2.13% (0.118 0.12)
2-3 @ 1.66% (0.05 0.05)
1-3 @ 1.54% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 16.52%

How you voted: Lille vs Montpellier

Lille
57.7%
Draw
26.9%
Montpellier HSC
15.4%
26
Head to Head
Apr 16, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 31
Lille
2-1
Montpellier
David (70'), Cabella (72')
Sylla (24')
Sep 4, 2022 12pm
Gameweek 6
Montpellier
1-3
Lille
Wahi (20')
David (41', 90+4'), Gomes (57')
Feb 12, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 24
Montpellier
0-1
Lille

Ferri (46'), Savanier (83'), Germain (87')
Xeka (77')
Gomes (22'), Celik (45'), Xeka (64')
Aug 29, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 4
Lille
2-1
Montpellier
Yazici (45+1'), David (57')
Fonte (25'), Andre (33'), Xeka (43')
Laborde (45+3')
Sambia (24'), Ferri (25'), Laborde (34'), Savanier (56'), Chotard (59'), Mollet (70')
Sambia (73')
Apr 16, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 33
Lille
1-1
Montpellier
Araujo (85')
Andre (30'), Celik (43'), Mandava (81')
Delort (21')
Mollet (14')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
@
Chiefs
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG108202982126
2Marseille1062223121120
3MonacoMonaco10622157820
4Lille10532169718
5Nice104421991016
6Lyon104331715215
7Lens1035297214
8Reims104241615114
9StrasbourgStrasbourg103431919013
10Auxerre104151718-113
11Brest104151316-313
12Toulouse103341111012
13Rennes103251316-311
14NantesNantes102441214-210
15Angers102441116-510
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne103161024-1410
17Le HavreLe Havre10307820-129
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier10118830-224


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