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Ligue 1
Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 7
Oct 5, 2024 at 6pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Toulouse

Lille
2 - 1
Toulouse

Gomes (57'), Bakker (72')
Gomes (8'), Alexsandro (15'), Santos (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Aboukhlal (39')
Sidibe (44'), Magri (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lille 1-0 Real Madrid
Wednesday, October 2 at 8pm in Champions League

Toulouse

All competitions
Last Game: Toulouse 1-2 Lyon
Sunday, September 29 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 2-0 Toulouse

 Despite some shaky recent home form, Lille have lost just three of their last 36 home Ligue 1 games and have scored in 16 consecutive matches at the Pierre-Mauroy against their upcoming opponents, so will be the big favourites, especially after their midweek antics. Toulouse have been way below par so far this season, and manager Martinez may start feeling the heat soon if results continue in this fashion, despite being awarded a new contract last month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 49.37%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawToulouse
49.37% (0.27 0.27) 24.1% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06) 26.53% (-0.213 -0.21)
Both teams to score 56.14% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.3% (0.091000000000001 0.09)45.7% (-0.092999999999996 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.98% (0.088000000000001 0.09)68.02% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.41% (0.143 0.14)18.58% (-0.143 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.14% (0.241 0.24)49.86% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.95% (-0.11500000000001 -0.12)31.04% (0.115 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.64% (-0.136 -0.14)67.36% (0.13500000000001 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Lille 49.37%
    Toulouse 26.53%
    Draw 24.09%
LilleDrawToulouse
1-0 @ 9.71% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.17% (0.042 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.36% (0.035 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.58% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.14% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.26% (0.025 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.93% (0.027 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.32% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 49.37%
1-1 @ 11.35% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.77% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.09%
0-1 @ 6.75% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.64% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.95% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.59% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.18% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 26.53%

How you voted: Lille vs Toulouse

Lille
91.5%
Draw
5.6%
Toulouse
2.8%
71
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2024 2pm
Gameweek 23
Toulouse
3-1
Lille
Mawissa (49'), Sierro (60' pen.), Dallinga (66')
Magri (34'), Sierro (70')
Arnar Haraldsson (45')
> Preview
Nov 12, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 12
Lille
1-1
Toulouse
Yoro (30')
Bentaleb (38'), David (47'), Alexsandro (64')
Dallinga (65')
Spierings (62'), Dallinga (82'), Nicolaisen (90+2'), Cissoko (90+7')
> Preview
Mar 18, 2023 4pm
Gameweek 28
Toulouse
0-2
Lille
Alexsandro (85'), Bayo (90+11')
> Preview
Sep 17, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 8
Lille
2-1
Toulouse
David (5'), Ounas (53')
Chaibi (48')
> Preview
Feb 22, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 26
Lille
3-0
Toulouse
Remy (2', 39'), Sanches (72')
Osimhen (40')

Leya Iseka (24'), Sangare (89'), Vainqueur (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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