Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24
Feb 19, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stade du Moustoir
Lorient3 - 0Ajaccio
We said: Lorient 1-0 Ajaccio
Lorient have struggled since losing some key players in the January transfer window, but a home fixture against a struggling Ajaccio is a good opportunity to change their February fortunes. The Bears will have one eye on a crucial clash with Troyes next weekend, with a trip to Lorient a challenging fixture which we believe they will return to Ajaccio with nothing from. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lorient | Draw | Ajaccio |
38.43% ( 0.04) | 28.32% ( -0.02) | 33.25% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.62% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
