Lorient have not beaten Marseille at any venue since a barnstorming 5-3 victory back in 2015, and not at home since early 2012, while recent form also suggests the odds are stacked against them.
While Marseille have been extremely poor on the road in Ligue 1, a first win of the season away from home cannot be too far away given their upturn in fortunes under Gattuso, and this could be the place to get it.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 21.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Lorient win it was 1-0 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
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