Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Marseille3 - 2Toulouse
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Reims 3-1 Marseille
Saturday, March 29 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Saturday, March 29 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Goals
for
for
54
Last Game: Toulouse 2-4 Brest
Sunday, March 30 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Sunday, March 30 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Goals
for
for
35
We said: Marseille 2-2 Toulouse
Despite Marseille's historical dominance, Sunday's match is difficult to predict due to the hosts' losing streak and defensive crisis, along with Toulouse missing their leading match-winning star, Aboukhlal. Thus, the spoils could be shared at the Velodrome this weekend with both sides finding the back of the net. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 53.04%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
53.04% ( 0.78) | 22.75% ( -0.42) | 24.21% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 58.34% ( 1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.3% ( 1.53) | 41.7% ( -1.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.9% ( 1.53) | 64.1% ( -1.53) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.25% ( 0.83) | 15.74% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.15% ( 1.51) | 44.85% ( -1.51) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.24% ( 0.53) | 30.75% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.98% ( 0.62) | 67.02% ( -0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
Marseille 53.04%
Toulouse 24.21%
Draw 22.75%
| Marseille | Draw | Toulouse |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.37)2-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.6% Total : 53.04% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.34)3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.31)0-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.88% Total : 24.21% |
How you voted: Marseille vs Toulouse
Marseille
84.2%Draw
12.3%Toulouse
3.5%57
Head to Head
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
Gameweek 30
Toulouse
2-2
Marseille
Dec 29, 2022 8pm
