Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 20.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
Result | ||
Toulouse | Draw | Marseille |
20.16% ( 0.17) | 22.33% ( 0.11) | 57.5% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 54.12% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.34% ( -0.25) | 44.65% ( 0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.98% ( -0.24) | 67.02% ( 0.24) |
Toulouse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.88% ( 0.03) | 36.12% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.09% ( 0.03) | 72.9% ( -0.03) |
Marseille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.73% ( -0.17) | 15.27% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.03% ( -0.33) | 43.97% ( 0.33) |
Score Analysis |
Toulouse | Draw | Marseille |
1-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.8% Total : 20.16% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.33% | 0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 6.1% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.56% Total : 57.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 8 | 21 | 26 |
2 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 20 |
4 | Lille | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 18 |
5 | Nice | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
6 | Lyon | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
7 | Lens | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
8 | Reims | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 14 |
9 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
10 | Auxerre | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
11 | Brest | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
13 | Rennes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
14 | NantesNantes | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 10 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 30 | -22 | 4 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |