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Liverpool logo
Premier League | Gameweek 16
Dec 11, 2021 at 3pm UK
Anfield
Aston Villa logo

Liverpool
1 - 0
Aston Villa

Salah (67' pen.)
van Dijk (13')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Nakamba (19'), Watkins (24')

Preview: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Liverpool and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking a seventh win on the bounce in all competitions, Liverpool welcome Steven Gerrard back home for Saturday's Premier League clash with Aston Villa.

The Reds saw off AC Milan 2-1 in the Champions League in midweek, while the visitors triumphed over Leicester City by the same scoreline last weekend.


Match preview

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp on December 7, 2021© Reuters

Who else but Divock Origi? After enduring 94 minutes of frustration and Diogo Jota producing one of the worst misses in Premier League history, the brilliant Belgian added to his long list of last-minute goals with the winner in a 1-0 success at Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Hailed as a legend by Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool players and fans alike, Origi was also on target at San Siro to propel the Reds to a 2-1 win over AC Milan - who took the lead through Fikayo Tomori before Mohamed Salah's leveller - which saw Klopp's men guarantee progression to the last-16 as the first-ever English side to win all six of their group games.

Victory at San Siro marked the Reds' sixth in a row across all competitions - four of which have come in the Premier League - and they have now leapfrogged Chelsea into second place as Manchester City remain one point clear at the top of the pile.

All four of Liverpool's most recent encounters at Anfield have also seen them come up trumps - scoring 12 goals and conceding a grand total of zero in the process - and not even the hectic winter schedule appears capable of stopping Klopp's ruthless machine.

The German recently made his disdain towards the fixture pile-up known once again, and if Villa are to produce even half as heroic a showing as they did on their own turf against Liverpool last term, they are under the tutelage of the right man.

Steven Gerrard celebrating Aston Villa's win over Crystal Palace on November 27, 2021© Reuters

All the highs and the lows of Steven Gerrard's Liverpool career will dominate the pre-match talk before the Anfield encounter kicks off, with the former Champions League-winning Red returning to his old home and desperate to get one over his former club.

Gerrard's bright start to life in the West Midlands must not be overlooked either, as a double from centre-back Ezri Konsa saw Villa claim a 2-1 win over FA Cup holders Leicester last weekend, cancelling out Harvey Barnes's opener for the Foxes.

Scottish Premiership-winning manager Gerrard has seen an immediate upturn in fortunes at Villa with three wins from four since taking the reins, and even in their defeat to champions Manchester City did they give Pep Guardiola's men a good run for their money.

Villa have now risen to 10th in the table amid their recent hot streak, with Gerrard's only away game so far ending in a 2-1 win against Crystal Palace, and the visitors certainly know what it takes to leave the Liverpool supporters shell-shocked.

Reds players may still be having nightmares about that infamous 7-2 humiliation at Villa Park last season, although they won 2-1 at Anfield back in April and are going in search of a fourth Premier League home win on the bounce versus Villa this week.

Liverpool Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Liverpool form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Roberto Firmino walks off injured for Liverpool in November 2021© Reuters

Liverpool duo Naby Keita and Joe Gomez were fit enough to return to the pitch as substitutes in the win at AC Milan, but Nat Phillips, Curtis Jones, Roberto Firmino and Harvey Elliott all remain absent for the Reds.

As expected, Klopp made numerous alterations for the trip to Italy, and the likes of Virgil van Dijk, Fabinho, Jordan Henderson and Thiago Alcantara are all poised to return to the first XI here.

Origi will come into serious consideration for a start following his recent hot streak, especially with Jota now a fitness doubt, but the Portuguese has not been ruled out.

As for Villa, attackers Leon Bailey, Bertrand Traore and Trezeguet remain unavailable for selection, although the latter did recently return for the Under-23s against Birmingham City.

Danny Ings is thought to have a good chance of returning against his former club, while Matt Targett could also come back from a head injury to displace Ashley Young at left-back.

Young will not cede his place easily, though, with Gerrard potentially seeing no reason to alter his starting XI after a morale-boosting win over Leicester.

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago; Salah, Jota, Mane

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Young; McGinn, Nakamba, Luiz; Ramsey, Buendia; Watkins


SM words green background

We say: Liverpool 3-1 Aston Villa

Gerrard is yet to completely shore up this Villa defence, and a first-choice Liverpool XI - many of whom are well-rested - will likely give the visitors a harsh dose of reality on Saturday.

There can be no room for sentimentality upon Gerrard's return to Anfield, but his side are highly unlikely to compete with a near full-strength Liverpool team away from home.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 72.4%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 10.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Liverpool
82.6%
Draw
7.1%
Aston Villa
10.3%
282
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Divock Origi scores for Liverpool against Wolverhampton Wanderers on December 4, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256


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