The top team in the Western Conference of Major League Soccer, Los Angeles FC, return home to face Sporting Kansas City on Sunday at Banc of California Stadium.
Last week, LA suffered their first defeat of the current campaign, dropping a 2-1 decision to the Los Angeles Galaxy, while KC have lost four of their previous five fixtures, falling 2-1 at home to Nashville SC a week ago.
Match preview
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A furious second-half rally came up just short for Los Angeles FC, who will have felt hard done by to lose to their biggest rival in the first El Trafico derby this season.
Not only was that the first defeat for the Black and Gold in the 2022 campaign, but it was also the first loss for rookie manager Steve Cherundolo as an MLS head coach.
If you look at the entire game, LAFC were unlucky to come away with nothing as they had a pair of goals controversially called back for offside, including the equaliser in stoppage time from Latif Blessing.
The Black and Gold are an offensive juggernaut, leading the league with 14 goals so far this year, a trend which we have seen from them since entering MLS in 2018, producing more goals per game (2.05) than any other side.
They have conceded the third-fewest goals domestically (six) this season, although it could be a lot better as this group have looked tentative when dealing with balls into their box, and that hesitancy cost them dearly against the Galaxy.
Coming into this contest, they are unbeaten in six consecutive regular-season home games, with their previous defeat coming in September of last year, 2-1 versus the Portland Timbers.
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Peter Vermes continues to search for solutions to try to get his veteran side back on the right foot in this campaign.
KC were able to get the ball into dangerous areas versus Nashville but failed to maintain that early momentum as they have racked up only six points thus far, the fewest at this stage of a season for them since 2011.
The Wizards have a knack for late heroics, outscoring their opponents 44-24 beyond the 60th minute onward in regular-season play since 2020.
While that stat will keep fans tuned into their games, it does not equal success, and this year, more often than not, this squad have waited too long to get going.
Kansas City lead the league when it comes to possessions won in the midfield third (207), so it has to be disappointing to see them struggling to finish off those opportunities created in transition.
Throughout the early portion of the season, KC have been missing the presence of a solid defensive midfielder who can get into those dirty areas and break up the build-up play of the opposition.
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Team News
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All four goals scored by LAFC striker Carlos Vela in 2022 have come at Banc of California Stadium, thanks to some fine work in the middle from the likes of Jose Cifuentes, who has two assists so far this year.
Former Kansas City midfielder llie Sanchez has been a big part of their possession game, with 34 recoveries in the midfield third, as he is one of five players to have started every match for this team in 2022, along with Vela, Maxime Crepeau, Mamadou Fall and Brian Rodriguez.
Eddie Segura is out with a right knee injury, while Erik Duenas has not recovered from his left knee issue.
Franco Escobar is questionable because of a left calf strain, and Doneil Henry could be a game-time decision due to tightness in his right hamstring.
Remi Walter has been the standout midfielder for the Wizards this year, leading all MLS players in terms of distance covered (50.4 miles) and second in recoveries (67), while Daniel Salloi is fourth in the league when it comes to shots inside the box (15).
Gadi Kinda and Alan Pulido are out after both undergoing knee surgery a while ago, while the club announced earlier this week that they had mutually agreed to terminate the contract of Jose Mauri.
Andreu Fontas has been terrific with his balls out of the back, leading all players in successful passes (503), with Nicolas Isimat-Mirin coming in at number two (403), and Roger Espinoza has the second-most possessions won in the final third in MLS with nine.
Last week, Tim Melia stopped a first-half penalty kick from Hany Mukhtar, the 12th of his MLS career, more than any keeper over that stretch.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Palacios, Henry, Murillo, Hollingshead; Blessing, Sanchez, Cifuentes; Rodriguez, Vela, Arango
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Zusi, Isimat-Mirin, Fontas, Sweat; Walter, Espinoza, Hernandez; Russell, Shelton, Salloi
We say: Los Angeles FC 3-1 Sporting Kansas City
After missing the playoffs for the first time in club history, we are seeing the LAFC we have all been accustomed to this season, as their speed, passing, and clinical finishing has overwhelmed their opponents to this point of the campaign.
KC have been one of the more underwhelming sides so far this season, and we could see them get burned by LA through the middle of the field, an area that they have struggled to close down.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 63.69%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Los Angeles FC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Los Angeles FC.
