Two of the sides tipped to struggle near the bottom of the Bundesliga this season meet on Saturday afternoon, as Mainz 05 host Greuther Furth at the Opel Arena.
Mainz will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat last weekend, whilst Greuther Furth are hoping to earn their first win of the new campaign.
Match preview
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After beginning the new campaign with a fantastic 1-0 win over RB Leipzig, Mainz failed to follow that up with a positive result away to VfL Bochum last week.
A 2-0 defeat against another side tipped to be in and around them this year was a disappointing result, particularly after the success on the opening day and the strong run of form from the back end of last season.
Since being appointed in January this year, manager Bo Svensson has overseen an incredible turnaround in form by his side.
Despite the disappointing loss against Bochum, Mainz have won 10 matches, drawn six and lost six during his 22 matches in charge. This form saw the side manage a 12th-place finish in the Bundesliga last season, after being rooted to the bottom with only seven points from their first 17 matches.
Svensson will look to take the positives from last week despite the result, as his side dominated the match for large parts and also welcomed back a few players after a COVID outbreak within the club saw 11 players and three staff members enter isolation for a period.
The hosts will look to recapture that spectacular form from previous matches on Saturday, against a side they have not faced in league action since 2013.
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Visitors Greuther Furth are also tipped to struggle near the foot of the Bundesliga table this season and their start to the new campaign has done little to suggest otherwise.
A poor pre-season saw the side lose three of their five friendlies, failing to win any at all, during a transfer window where three first-team players of the promotion-winning team left for fellow Bundesliga clubs.
The first competitive match of the season was no better either, as Greuther exited from the DFB-Pokal in the first round courtesy of a demoralising defeat on penalties to amateur side SV Babelsberg after a 2-2 draw.
Moving on to their start to the league season and the positives remain difficult to find. A 5-1 thrashing away to Stuttgart on the opening day was followed up by a 1-1 draw at home to fellow likely strugglers Arminia Bielefeld.
This result was even more frustrating for Greuther when you consider that their opponents were reduced to 10 men for over 20 minutes of that match, and yet they still could not find a winner despite their dominance.
Most will have foreseen these struggles for a Greuther side that has only participated in the Bundesliga once before, which saw them finish bottom of the table and drop out of the top flight immediately back in 2013.
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Team News
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After welcoming back a few of their absentees last weekend, Mainz will be looking forward to having a full strength squad at their disposal after their outbreak of COVID throughout the club.
The likes of Jeremiah St Juste, Anton Stach and Karim Onisiwo are likely to coming into the starting lineup for their first starts of the new league campaign.
Meanwhile, the visitors will be missing Gideon Jung after he injured his knee in the warm-up for last week's draw with Bielefeld. Justin Hoogma should retain his place in defence in Jung's absence.
Jessic Ngankam also remains sidelined with a knee injury himself, whilst Robin Kehr is struggling with a groin problem and is listed as doubtful for the trip.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Stach, Martin; Boetius; Burkardt, Onisiwo
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Burchert; Meyerhofer, Bauer, Hoogma, Itter; Seguin, Sarpei, Green; Nielsen; Abiama, Hrgota
We say: Mainz 05 2-0 Greuther Furth
Mainz should be expected to get back on track here against the newly-promoted strugglers. After welcoming back a host of first-team players from COVID, the home side should have enough to return to form and pile the misery on for Greuther Furth again.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greuther Furth win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greuther Furth win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
