Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 52.55%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
52.55% ( 0.85) | 23.57% ( -0.16) | 23.87% ( -0.69) |
Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.28% ( 0.05) | 45.72% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.96% ( 0.05) | 68.04% ( -0.04) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.63% ( 0.34) | 17.37% ( -0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.22% ( 0.58) | 47.78% ( -0.58) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.77% ( -0.55) | 33.23% ( 0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.16% ( -0.62) | 69.84% ( 0.62) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
1-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 2.49% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.78% Total : 52.55% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.57% | 0-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.37% Total : 23.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |