Major League Soccer

Nov 26, 2023 at 1am UK

Nippert Stadium

Cincinnati
1 - 0
Philadelphia

Mosquera (90+4')
Gaddis (30'), Boupendza (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lowe (11'), Carranza (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-1 Cincinnati (8-7 pen.)
Saturday, November 4 at 11pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: New England 0-1 Philadelphia
Thursday, November 9 at 12am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: FC Cincinnati 2-0 Philadelphia Union

Both teams will be without some key pieces to their lineup, but the overall depth of Cincy and the individual genius of Acosta has us leaning towards the Supporters' Shield winners getting the job done.

How to watch

You can watch FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 50.83%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
FC Cincinnati	Draw	Philadelphia Union
50.83% ( -0.41)	22.97% ( 0.13)	26.2% ( 0.28)

Both teams to score 59.69% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.13% (

-0.36)

40.86% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.74% (

-0.36)

63.25% (

0.36)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.78% (

-0.28)

16.22% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.28% (

-0.51)

45.71% (

0.5)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.24% (

0.03)

28.75% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.4% (

0.03)

64.59% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

FC Cincinnati 50.83%

Philadelphia Union 26.2%

Draw 22.97%

FC Cincinnati	Draw	Philadelphia Union
2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.48% Total : 50.83%	1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.97%	1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.44% Total : 26.2%