Major League Soccer

May 21, 2023 at 3.30am UK

Banc of California Stadium

Los Angeles
2 - 1
Earthquakes

Biuk (3'), Vela (90+5' pen.)
Maldonado (29')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Trauco (52')
Judson (89'), Beason (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Los Angeles FC and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Los Angeles FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Los Angeles 1-1 Kansas
Thursday, May 18 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: LA Galaxy 2-1 Earthquakes
Monday, May 15 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Los Angeles FC 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes

Although San Jose have performed above expectations under their new manager, we expect Los Angeles to have too much individual quality for them this weekend. The MLS Cup holders will be highly motivated by the possibility of heading towards the top of the Western Conference table with a victory, especially having failed to win their last league game.

How to watch

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 72.2%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 11.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (3.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.

Result
Los Angeles FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
72.2% ( -0.41)	16.36% ( 0.46)	11.44% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 54.04% (

-2.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.54% (

-2.58)

34.45% (

2.58)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.62% (

-2.96)

56.38% (

2.96)

Los Angeles FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.66% (

-0.71)

8.33% (

0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.95% (

-1.79)

29.04% (

1.79)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.95% (

-1.89)

41.05% (

1.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.4% (

-1.73)

77.59% (

1.73)

Score Analysis

Los Angeles FC 72.19%

San Jose Earthquakes 11.44%

Draw 16.36%

Los Angeles FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
2-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.67) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.26) 1-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.82) 3-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.28) 3-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.26) 5-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.25) 6-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.09) 5-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.16) 6-1 @ 1% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.01% Total : 72.19%	1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.44) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.36%	1-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 1% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.42% Total : 11.44%