Having both fallen short in the Copa America semi-finals, Peru and Colombia will battle for third spot in Brasilia on Saturday.
Peru lost 1-0 at the hands of host nation Brazil to prevent them from reaching their second consecutive final, while their opponents missed out in a penalty shootout against Argentina on Thursday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Peru got off to a disappointing start in the group stage, as they were thrashed 4-0 by pre-tournament favourites Brazil, but they would quickly bounce back to achieve a high finish.
A Sergio Pena finish and a Yerry Mina own goal saw them pick up an impressive 2-1 win over Colombia, and they finished with a 2-2 draw with Ecuador and a 1-0 victory against Venezuela, as Andre Carrillo netted the only goal of the game early in the second half.
That commendable group campaign saw Ricardo Gareca's men finish in second spot in Group B, with their seven points only topped by Brazil.
As a result, Los Incas were drawn against Paraguay, who came third in the opposite group, in the quarter-finals, and a dramatic game followed as they played out a 3-3 draw in Goiania.
Paraguay took an early lead through Gustavo Gomez, but a Gomez own goal and goals from Gianluca Lapadula and Yoshimar Yotun gave Peru a 3-2 lead in the dying minutes, until Gabriel Avalos netted a late equaliser to take the tie to a penalty shootout.
Nonetheless, Gareca's men would prevail as Miguel Trauco scored the winning penalty in sudden death after Pedro Gallese had denied Alberto Espinola, booking them a difficult clash with Brazil in the semi-finals.
In a rerun of the 2019 Copa America final, Brazil again came out on top, knocking Peru out of the tournament with a 1-0 win thanks to Lucas Paqueta's first-half goal, leaving Los Incas to battle for third place this year.
© Reuters
They take on a Colombia side who came even closer to reaching the final, having taken Argentina to a penalty shootout.
However, Reinaldo Rueda's men may have felt slightly fortunate to have reached the final four following a fairly disappointing group campaign.
They won their opening game 1-0 against Ecuador thanks to Edwin Cardona's goal on the stroke of half time, meaning they were always in a strong position to qualify, but La Tricolor's next three games resulted in just one point, including a defeat to Saturday's opponents, seeing them fall to third place as a result.
That saw them handed an unfavourable quarter-final clash with Uruguay, but Rueda's men stepped up to the challenge, taking La Celeste to a penalty shootout after a goalless draw, and they progressed as David Ospina denied Matias Vina after Duvan Zapata, Davinson Sanchez, Mina and Miguel Borja had all converted their spot kicks.
La Tricolor again went the distance last time out against Argentina in the semi-final, as Luis Diaz levelled the game on the hour mark after Lautaro Martinez's early opener, but they would not prevail on that occasion as Emiliano Martinez denied Sanchez, Mina and Cardona from the spot to send La Albiceleste through to the final with a 3-2 win in the shootout.
Having missed out on what would have been their second Copa America title, Rueda's men will now look to finish in a strong manner and secure third spot after an underwhelming start to the tournament.
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Peru will be boosted by the return of winger Andre Carrillo, who served a suspension last time out for a red card shown in the quarter-final win over Paraguay.
He could come straight back into the attacking line with Gareca expected to revert back to his more usual system of four defenders and Carrillo, Sergio Pena and Christian Cueva supporting forward Gianluca Lapadula.
Renato Tapia and Yoshimar Yotun will continue to sit in front of the defensive line, having been two of their most impressive players this Copa America campaign.
Colombia come into the game without Porto midfielder Mateus Uribe, who has left the camp early with a muscular injury, leaving Gustavo Cuellar to partner Wilmar Barrios in the middle.
Their forward line again failed to cause problems last time out, and Rueda may opt to bring in Miguel Borja to join Duvan Zapata in attack.
Instead, they relied on Luis Diaz scoring his second goal of the tournament, and he will continue to feature on the left flank with Juan Cuadrado operating on the other wing.
The established back four of Daniel Munoz, Yerry Mina, Davinson Sanchez and William Tesillo should remain untouched, shielding experienced goalkeeper David Ospina between the sticks.
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Callens, Trauco; Tapia, Yotun; Carrillo, Pena, Cueva; Lapadula
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Munoz, Mina, Sanchez, Tesillo; Cuadrado, Barrios, Cuellar, Diaz; Zapata, Borja
We say: Peru 1-2 Colombia
While Peru may have had the more impressive tournament based on the relative expectations of the two sides, and they did defeat Colombia in the group stage, La Tricolor do have plenty of quality at their disposal to defeat Los Incas on Saturday.
They will hope to continue their gradual improvement in the tournament with a win to seal a commendable third-placed finish, and Rueda's men should be able to do that as long as the forward line can click.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 56.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Peru had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
Argentina
Canada
Chile
Peru
Venezuela
Ecuador
Mexico
Jamaica
Uruguay
Panama
USA
Bolivia
Colombia
Brazil
Costa Rica
Paraguay
