Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 34.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.