Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 57.02%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.