Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21
Feb 10, 2025 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca1 - 1Rio Ave
We said: Arouca 1-1 Rio Ave
Both these sides are on an upward trajectory, with the hosts unbeaten in their last five league games, while the visitors have only lost to Sporting Lisbon over the same period. We are expecting a close contest when these two meet on Monday night and feel that there will be nothing to separate them on the scoreline at the final whistle. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
40.04% ( -0.19) | 27.46% ( 0.22) | 32.5% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 48.95% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.4% ( -0.86) | 56.6% ( 0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.43% ( -0.7) | 77.57% ( 0.7) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( -0.51) | 27.66% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.79% ( -0.66) | 63.21% ( 0.66) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.67% ( -0.47) | 32.33% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.16% ( -0.53) | 68.84% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
Arouca 40.04%
Rio Ave 32.49%
Draw 27.45%
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.91% Total : 40.04% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.94% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.45% | 0-1 @ 10.09% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.49% |
How you voted: Arouca vs Rio Ave
Arouca
45.5%Draw
40.9%Rio Ave
13.6%44
