Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
