Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25

Mar 19, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio Pina Manique

Casa Pia
2 - 0
Maritimo

Cardoso (41', 50')
Batista (90+1'), Clayton (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Maritimo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Famalicao 1-0 Casa Pia
Monday, March 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Maritimo

All competitions

Last Game: Maritimo 0-3 Benfica
Sunday, March 12 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Casa Pia 1-0 Maritimo

With two of the division's lowest scorers on show, this looks likely to be a tight affair that could be decided by a single goal. Neither team are in very good form and both would benefit hugely from a morale-boosting win, and the signs all point to that going the way of Casa Pia given Maritimo's terrible away record. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Maritimo
43.76% ( -0.72)	27.9% ( 0.02)	28.34% ( 0.69)

Both teams to score 46% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.49% (

0.24)

59.51% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.14% (

0.18)

79.86% (

-0.18)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.98% (

-0.26)

27.01% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.63% (

-0.34)

62.37% (

0.34)

Maritimo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.02% (

0.69)

36.98% (

-0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.23% (

0.68)

73.77% (

-0.69)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 43.76%

Maritimo 28.34%

Draw 27.89%

Casa Pia	Draw	Maritimo
1-0 @ 13.07% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 8.56% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.76%	1-1 @ 13% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.89%	0-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.8% Total : 28.34%