Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21

Feb 20, 2023 at 7pm UK

Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
2 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Teixeira (34'), Hernandez (90+6')
Cruz (51'), Sylla (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Goncalves (8' pen., 61'), Santos (70')
Goncalves (20'), Ugarte (68'), Bellerin (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Vizela 0-0 Chaves
Friday, February 10 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Midtjylland
Thursday, February 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Chaves 0-2 Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon have put together a fine run of form away from home, claiming four wins and one draw in their last six matches. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the Leoes to claim all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 15.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
15.75% ( 0.7)	21.4% ( 0.62)	62.85% ( -1.32)

Both teams to score 48.68% (

-0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.35% (

-1.29)

47.65% (

1.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.15% (

-1.2)

69.85% (

1.2)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.97% (

0.16)

43.03% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.68% (

0.14)

79.32% (

-0.14)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.45% (

-0.82)

14.55% (

0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.4% (

-1.6)

42.6% (

1.6)

Score Analysis

Chaves 15.75%

Sporting Lisbon 62.84%

Draw 21.4%

Chaves	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.58% Total : 15.75%	1-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.83% Total : 21.4%	0-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 11.63% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 6.3% ( -0.19) 0-4 @ 3.6% ( -0.24) 1-4 @ 3.04% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 1.39% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.43% Total : 62.84%