Primeira Liga | Gameweek 15

Dec 29, 2023 at 8.45pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
1 - 0
Chaves

Mario (58')
Martinez (41'), Varela (51'), Cardoso (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ribeiro (25'), Rodrigues (50'), Correia (75'), Victor (85'), Cruz (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Chaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 2-1 Leixoes
Saturday, December 23 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Having only beaten Porto once in 40 encounters and with just three wins in 14 league matches this season, it is difficult to make much of a case for Chaves in this match. Porto have been excellent at home over the last couple of months, and we fancy them to deliver a dominant display in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.72%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.27%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Chaves
79.72% ( 1.27)	13.36% ( -0.47)	6.92% ( -0.8)

Both teams to score 45.26% (

-2.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.68% (

-0.9)

35.31% (

0.9)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.66% (

-1.01)

57.34% (

1.01)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.04% (

0.06)

6.96% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.49% (

0.17)

25.5% (

-0.17)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.64% (

-2.73)

51.35% (

2.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.42% (

-1.9)

85.58% (

1.89)

Score Analysis

Porto 79.71%

Chaves 6.92%

Draw 13.36%

Porto	Draw	Chaves
2-0 @ 12.69% ( 0.65) 3-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.61) 1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.43) 4-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 4% ( 0.24) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.27) 6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.17) 6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.92% Total : 79.71%	1-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.31) Other @ 0.62% Total : 13.36%	0-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.24) Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.92%