Primeira Liga | Gameweek 13

Dec 10, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
4 - 0
Chaves

Gomes (6', 61'), Marques (70'), Tavares (90+2')
Araujo (35'), Marques (45'), Holsgrove (49'), Alvaro (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Rodrigues (57'), Langa (74'), Morim (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Chaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 3-1 Porto
Wednesday, December 6 at 6pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Chaves

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Chaves 2-1 Vizela
Friday, December 1 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Estoril Praia 2-1 Chaves

We anticipate a tight and entertaining encounter at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, given the stakes at the bottom end of the Primeira Liga table with crucial ground to be gained in the fight to move clear of the drop zone. While Chaves will certainly cause them problems going forward, Estoril Praia do have enough to prevail on home turf, and we fancy them to take all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Chaves
39.13% ( -2.85)	26.75% ( 0.47)	34.12% ( 2.38)

Both teams to score 51.51% (

-0.82)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.47% (

-1.35)

53.53% (

1.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.96% (

-1.15)

75.04% (

1.14)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.27% (

-2.13)

26.72% (

2.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.01% (

-2.89)

61.99% (

2.89)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.29% (

0.89)

29.7% (

-0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.24% (

1.08)

65.76% (

-1.08)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 39.12%

Chaves 34.12%

Draw 26.74%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Chaves
1-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.49) 3-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.41) 3-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.42) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.12%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.41) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74%	0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.72) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.57) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.28) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.42% Total : 34.12%