Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.73%) and 3-0 (10.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Famalicao |
75.01% ( -0.44) | 16.25% ( 0.26) | 8.74% ( 0.17) |
Both teams to score 43.49% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.44% ( -0.65) | 42.55% ( 0.65) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.04% ( -0.65) | 64.95% ( 0.65) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.29% ( -0.27) | 9.7% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.65% ( -0.63) | 32.34% ( 0.63) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.16% ( -0.04) | 51.83% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.1% ( -0.02) | 85.89% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Famalicao |
2-0 @ 13.68% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.9% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.12% Total : 75% | 1-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.55% Total : 16.25% | 0-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
17 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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