Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 71.85%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 9.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.3%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.