Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.21%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 12.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.49%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
69.21% ( 0.06) | 18.03% ( -0.03) | 12.76% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 52.13% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.99% ( 0.05) | 39.01% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.66% ( 0.06) | 61.33% ( -0.06) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.8% ( 0.03) | 10.2% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.51% ( 0.07) | 33.49% ( -0.06) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.06% ( -0.01) | 41.94% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.62% ( -0.01) | 78.38% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-0 @ 11.14% 1-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 3-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0) Other @ 4.56% Total : 69.2% | 1-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.03% | 0-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 1.46% Total : 12.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
2 | Porto | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 15 |
5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
9 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
10 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 6 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 |
17 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 |
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