Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
75.79% ( 0.81) | 15.67% ( -0.29) | 8.53% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 44.62% ( -1.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.46% ( -0.42) | 40.54% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.07% ( -0.43) | 62.92% ( 0.43) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.98% ( 0.08) | 9.02% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.29% ( 0.2) | 30.71% ( -0.21) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.04% ( -1.45) | 50.96% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.69% ( -1) | 85.31% ( 0.99) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
2-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 10.66% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.58% Total : 75.77% | 1-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.67% | 0-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.88% Total : 8.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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