Primeira Liga | Gameweek 30

Apr 30, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio José Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 1
Famalicao

Morita (18'), Esgaio (60')
Ugarte (45+1'), Chermiti (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Coates (69' og.)
Sa (45+3'), Riccieli (61'), Assuncao (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Famalicao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Monday, April 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Famalicao

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Famalicao 1-2 Porto
Wednesday, April 26 at 8.30pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

We said: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Famalicao

While Famalicao's cup dreams suffered a huge blow, they have put together some late-season form in the league as they make a late push for European football. However, given the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, we fancy Sporting Lisbon to come away with all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Famalicao
75.79% ( 0.81)	15.67% ( -0.29)	8.53% ( -0.52)

Both teams to score 44.62% (

-1.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.46% (

-0.42)

40.54% (

0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.07% (

-0.43)

62.92% (

0.43)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.98% (

0.08)

9.02% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.29% (

0.2)

30.71% (

-0.21)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.04% (

-1.45)

50.96% (

1.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.69% (

-1)

85.31% (

0.99)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 75.77%

Famalicao 8.53%

Draw 15.67%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Famalicao
2-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 10.66% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.58% Total : 75.77%	1-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.67%	0-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.88% Total : 8.53%