Atletico Madrid will have to become the first team to ever overcome a three-goal Champions League semi-final deficit if they are to advance to the final of this season's competition at the expense of bitter rivals Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
Indeed, a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick in the first leg at the Bernabeu last week has made Zinedine Zidane's side the overwhelming favourites to enjoy yet more European success over their capital rivals.
Atletico
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Atletico have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the third time in four seasons, having never made this stage previously, which is an indication of Diego Simeone's excellent work at the Vicente Calderon.
The Red and Whites have actually been present in two of the last three Champions League finals – losing to Real Madrid on both occasions – but it is going to take a minor miracle to advance this time around after losing the first leg 3-0 at the Bernabeu last week.
Atletico managed a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu in La Liga last month, but a 3-0 defeat in the first leg of their semi-final has placed the capital club in a very difficult position. Indeed, only once in the past four decades have Atletico won a home game against Real Madrid by three clear goals, although that came only two years ago – recording a 4-0 success in the league.
No side has ever overturned even a two-goal first-leg defeat in the Champions League semi-finals, but Atletico have won 29 of their last 35 European fixtures at the Vicente Calderon, while they have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 15 fixtures, conceding just seven times in the process.
It would be fair to say that Atletico had a fairly kind route to this stage of the competition, with Bayer Leverkusen failing to provide a test in the round of 16, although English champions Leicester City did give the Spanish giants a scare in their two-legged quarter-final.
A 1-0 home win in the first leg ultimately proved enough to make the semi-finals, however, with Leicester only managing a 1-1 draw in the return.
Atletico have actually only won three of their last six games in all competitions, but they will enter this match off the back of a 1-0 victory over Eibar in La Liga at the weekend, which kept the gap to second-placed Real Madrid at 10 points.
There is something about Rojiblancos in this competition, but they have seen their Champions League hopes ended by Real Madrid in each of the last three seasons.
It will be the last European tie at the Vicente Calderon, however, and the supporters will be hoping to draw on some magic to secure a remarkable turnaround.
Recent form: LWDWDL
Recent form (all competitions): DWLWLW
Real Madrid
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Real Madrid have reached the semi-finals of the European Cup for the seventh successive season, which is a record in the competition. Los Blancos are desperate to become the first team to successfully defend the Champions League, however, as they stare at yet another European final.
Napoli were comfortably dispatched in this season's round of 16, but it was always going to be a difficult tie against Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals, with many fancying the German champions to land the title this season.
Los Blancos secured a very impressive 2-1 victory at the Allianz Arena in the first leg, however, before winning 4-2 after extra time at the Bernabeu to ensure that they would make the final four of the competition once again.
Any win and a clean sheet would have been a strong result in the first leg last week, but not many would have predicted what occurred. Ronaldo might be 32, but this is his competition, and the Portuguese made it 103 Champions League goals with his treble in Madrid last time out.
Los Blancos have actually only won one of their last seven away games in the semi-finals of the Champions League, while they have lost 16 of 27 such fixtures, which does give Atletico some hope entering Wednesday's clash in Madrid.
That said, Zidane's team have only lost one of their last 11 away games in the Champions League – recording six wins in the process. Meanwhile, they have gone through in 45 of the 58 European ties after winning the first leg at home, including against Napoli in this season's competition.
Real Madrid will enter this match off the back of a 4-0 victory over Granada at the weekend, with that result keeping the capital giants level on points with Barcelona at the top of La Liga, while boasting a game in hand.
Taking the Spanish title away from Barcelona, in addition to becoming the first team to successfully defend the Champions League in the modern era would place Real Madrid in the history books once again, and make it a quite remarkable couple of seasons for Zidane at the helm.
Recent form: DWWWWW
Recent form (all competitions): WLWWWW
Team News
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Atletico still have problems at the back, with Sime Vrsaljko, Juanfran and Jose Gimenez expected to miss out once again, which should see Lucas Hernandez continue at right-back.
Yannick Ferreira Carrasco and Kevin Gameiro are once again expected to support leading scorer Antoine Griezmann in the final third, although Fernando Torres and Tiago are both pushing for spots in Simeone's first XI.
As for Real Madrid, Zidane again rotated his team for Saturday's La Liga clash with Granada, but all of the big guns are expected to return.
Dani Carvajal's absence due to a hamstring problem should see Nacho start at right-back, while the fact that Isco started on the bench against Granada suggests that he will fill the spot vacated by the injured Gareth Bale.
Alvaro Morata and James Rodriguez both scored twice at the weekend, but Ronaldo and Karim Benzema will return to the front three, while Raphael Varane, who has overcome a calf problem, should start alongside Sergio Ramos at centre-back.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Lucas, Godin, Savic, Luis; Gabi, Koke, Saul; Carrasco, Gameiro, Griezmann
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Navas; Nacho, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Isco, Benzema, Ronaldo
Head To Head
Wednesday will be the 216th meeting between Real Madrid and Atletico in all competitions. Real Madrid lead the head-to-head 110 wins to Atletico's 54, while the remaining 52 fixtures have finished level.
Eight of those meetings have been in European competition, and it is Real Madrid that boast five wins to Atletico's one.
Incredibly, this is the fourth season in succession that these two teams will face off in the knockout stage of the Champions League, and it is a re-run of both the 2013-14 and 2015-16 finals, where Real Madrid triumphed on both occasions.
As well as meeting in two of the last three Champions League finals, the city rivals also clashed in the quarter-finals of the 2014-15 competition, with Real Madrid securing a 1-0 aggregate success to make the semi-finals.
It is the first time that the two teams are meeting in the semi-finals of the European Cup since the 1958-59 campaign, however, with Real Madrid progressing to the final after three legs of that particular match-up.
In terms of this season, Real Madrid recorded a 3-0 victory at the Vicente Calderon in last November's La Liga clash, but the points were shared in a 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu just last month.
We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
Atletico's record at the Vicente Calderon over the last few seasons has been excellent, but even the most ardent of supporters would find it difficult to predict a turnaround in Wednesday's clash.
Real Madrid almost always find the back of the net, and we are backing Zidane's side to comfortably progress into the final with a 1-1 draw on the night, and a 4-1 aggregate success.
Matt Law
