Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 47.25%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.