Serie A | Gameweek 26
Feb 25, 2024 at 2pm UK
Sardegna Arena
We said: Cagliari 1-2 Napoli
After grinding out a draw with Barcelona, having both a new boss and star striker Victor Osimhen back in the fold should help Napoli to overcome Cagliari once again. The hosts have been unstable defensively, so even the champions' goal-shy attack can thrive on Sunday.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.22% . A win for Cagliari had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.3% .
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.43% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (8.03%) . The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.81%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%) . The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood .
Result Cagliari Draw Napoli 28.47% ( 0.05) 25.31% ( 0.02) 46.22% ( -0.07)
Both teams to score 53.72% ( -0.02)
50.42% ( -0.05) 49.59% ( 0.05)
28.39% ( -0.04) 71.61% ( 0.04)
68.4% ( 0.02) 31.6% ( -0.01)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 31.99% ( 0.02) 68.01% ( -0.02)
78.54% ( -0.05) 21.46% ( 0.05)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 45.51% ( -0.08) 54.49% ( 0.08)
Cagliari 28.47%
Napoli 46.21%
Draw 25.31%
Cagliari Draw Napoli 1-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.05% 3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 28.47% 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.31% 0-1 @ 10.43% 1-2 @ 9.25% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.03% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.75% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.44% Total : 46.21%
How you voted: Cagliari vs Napoli
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rhs 2.0
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