Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 30

Mar 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
1 - 2
AC Milan

Duncan (50')
Biraghi (13'), Martinez (24')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Loftus-Cheek (47'), Leao (53')
Thiaw (21'), Tomori (89'), Loftus-Cheek (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 M. Haifa
Thursday, March 14 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-3 AC Milan
Sunday, March 17 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Fiorentina 2-2 AC Milan

Only one of the last 12 league matches between Fiorentina and Milan have ended in a draw, but that could be the outcome this weekend. The Viola will come up just shy of recording three straight home wins over the Rossoneri for a first time since the 1970s, but even one point would be welcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
45.47% ( 0.01)	23.98% ( 0)	30.55% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 59.49% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.41% (

-0.01)

42.59% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35% (

-0.01)

64.99% (

0.01)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.06%

18.94% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.55%

50.45% (

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.39% (

-0.01)

26.61% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.16% (

-0.01)

61.84% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 45.47%

AC Milan 30.55%

Draw 23.98%

Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.39% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.12% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.39% 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.34% Total : 45.47%	1-1 @ 11.1% 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.98%	1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.7% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.55%