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Serie A
Napoli logo
Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio San Paolo, Napoli
Roma logo

Napoli
2 - 1
Roma

Osimhen (17'), Simeone (86')
Osimhen (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)
El Shaarawy (75')
Dybala (33'), El Shaarawy (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Salernitana 0-2 Napoli
Saturday, January 21 at 5pm in Serie A

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Spezia 0-2 Roma
Sunday, January 22 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Napoli 1-0 Roma

 Napoli and Roma have conceded the fewest shots on target in Serie A this season, so a goalfest is perhaps not in store on Sunday evening. They are also the teams to have leaked the fewest goals during the second half (only seven apiece), which suggests an early strike for the red-hot hosts could be enough to win it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
NapoliDrawRoma
52% (-0.115 -0.12) 24.56% (0.093 0.09) 23.43% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 51.52% (-0.26000000000001 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.7% (-0.357 -0.36)50.3% (0.362 0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (-0.316 -0.32)72.25% (0.31999999999999 0.32)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.68% (-0.182 -0.18)19.32% (0.186 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.92% (-0.30200000000001 -0.3)51.08% (0.306 0.31)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.86% (-0.175 -0.17)36.14% (0.18 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.08% (-0.179 -0.18)72.92% (0.18300000000001 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 52%
    Roma 23.43%
    Draw 24.56%
NapoliDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.47% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.6% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.26% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-0 @ 5.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.16% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.13% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.1% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 52%
1-1 @ 11.68% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.98% (0.101 0.1)
2-2 @ 4.89% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.56%
0-1 @ 7.11% (0.069 0.07)
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.62% (0.018 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.66% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.23%
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.43%

How you voted: Napoli vs Roma

Napoli
80.1%
Draw
11.9%
Roma
8.0%
176
Head to Head
Oct 23, 2022 7.45pm
Roma
0-1
Napoli

Smalling (22')
Osimhen (80')
Apr 18, 2022 6pm
Napoli
1-1
Roma
Insigne (11' pen.)
Koulibaly (37'), Zanoli (52'), Lozano (63'), Insigne (64')
El Shaarawy (90+1')
Cristante (17'), Zaniolo (71')
Fuzato (79')
Oct 24, 2021 5pm
Roma
0-0
Napoli

Mourinho (19'), Abraham (30'), Mourinho (82'), Karsdorp (90+4'), Veretout (90+4'), Mancini (90+5')

Mertens (90+5')
Spalletti (90+6')
Mar 21, 2021 7.45pm
Roma
0-2
Napoli

Ibanez (26'), Mancini (45+1'), Diawara (59'), El Shaarawy (64'), Villar (85')
Mertens (27', 34')
Zielinski (47'), Koulibaly (78'), Osimhen (90+1')
Nov 29, 2020 7.45pm
Napoli
4-0
Roma
Insigne (31'), Fabian (64'), Mertens (81'), Politano (86')
Di Lorenzo (32')

Ibanez (29'), Cristante (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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