Still in the thick of a relegation fight, Torino host drop-bound Parma on Monday night, at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
Eight points from their last five games has helped the Granata stay in touch with the other clubs around the dreaded dotted line, while the visitors have accepted their fate will be demotion after a run of four straight defeats.
Match preview
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Still precariously placed with six matches to go - as they still have a game in hand on their nearest relegation rivals - much-improved Torino have finally found their feet on home soil, just as their campaign reaches its climax.
Both of Il Toro's home wins in Serie A this season have come since the start of March, with current coach Davide Nicola in charge. They now face a downtrodden Parma side - who have all but been condemned to second-tier football next term - having beaten both Sassuolo and Roma, plus drawn against old foes Juventus, in three of their last four games in Turin.
Though they were unable to pick up a third home success last time out against Napoli, it is apparent that Nicola's men have forged a clear identity in recent weeks and will be confident of posting a third win in five outings against opponents deep in disarray.
Star striker Andrea Belotti has suffered a dry spell of late - drawing another blank in the 2-0 reverse last week - as his team were unable to recover from a sluggish start, with Tiemoue Bakayoko's spectacular early goal being followed by Napoli's second just minutes later.
The Euros-bound forward may need to find his shooting boots sharpish, as Torino are yet to face Milan and Lazio before the season's end, and with a potential winner-takes-all encounter with Benevento set for the final day, there remains much at stake.
This week, the Granata will also want to overcome a bizarre record of failure on one particular weekday: they have only won once in their last 12 league games played on a Monday.
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Now staring into the abyss, as an inevitable return to Serie B looms later this month, Parma will rue missed opportunities in their failed campaign, after effectively dropping 27 points from winning positions in 2020-21. Incidentally, Torino (with 25) are the closest side to the Crociati in that regard.
The latest in a long line of setbacks came in an entertaining but ultimately fruitless 4-3 defeat at home to fellow basement boys Crotone last weekend, as Roberto D'Aversa saw his men slip 11 points adrift of safety with just five games to go.
As the bottom two went head-to-head with Crotone knowing that a loss would seal their fate, some characteristically slapdash defending allowed the Calabrians to inch closer to Parma in the standings - closing a week in which the Gialloblu had already blown a lead to lose by the same scoreline against Cagliari.
After those results in crucial encounters versus those just above them, Parma have only earned 11 points against teams currently in the bottom half of the table - at least six fewer than any other Serie A side.
To build on that paltry tally this week, D'Aversa will have to motivate his dispirited troops to better their 3-0 loss against Torino the last time the clubs met, at the start of the year.
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Team News
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Torino prepare for another vital game in their quest for Serie A survival with a clean bill of health, after goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu returned from a spell in self-isolation with COVID-19 to start against Napoli last time out.
However, midfield pair Rolando Mandragora - sent off in the closing stages last week - and Simone Verdi will be missing due to suspension. Daniele Baselli and Sasa Lukic are therefore expected to be drafted into Toro's starting XI.
The rest of the lineup is set to stay unchanged, as coach Davide Nicola should again favour Antonio Sanabria over veteran Simone Zaza up front.
In contrast, Parma's injury woes continue, as talented forward Dennis Man suffered a thigh injury versus Crotone and is expected to miss the rest of his debut Serie A season.
While experienced midfielder Juraj Kucka should return from a thigh strain, centre-back Riccardo Gagliolo (calf) is still struggling to be ready. Forward foursome Yann Karamoh, Roberto Inglese, Joshua Zirkzee and Valentin Mihaila are also set to be sidelined.
Milan loanee Andrea Conti will be absent again due to a muscular issue, so Maxime Busi should start at right-back for the visitors, with Gervinho coming in to replace Man as part of Parma's attacking trident.
Torino possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Izzo, Nkoulou, Bremer; Singo, Rincon, Baselli, Lukic, Ansaldi; Sanabria, Belotti
Parma possible starting lineup:
Colombi; Busi, Bani, Osorio, Pezzella; Hernani, Brugman, Kurtic; Kucka, Pelle, Gervinho
We say: Torino 2-0 Parma
Still high on confidence despite a setback last weekend, Torino can take advantage of a prime opportunity to get back on track right away, as they inch closer to Serie A survival.
While Parma are wracked by injuries and ill fortune, the Granata seem to have conjured sufficient fighting spirit and can utilise their lively strike duo to earn maximum points on Monday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 50.24%. A win for Parma had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Parma win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torino would win this match.
