Two sides short of form in recent weeks contest three Serie A points on Saturday afternoon, as ailing Atalanta BC visit relegation-haunted Venezia.
The teams convene at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo for the first time in the top flight since March 2002, with both searching for an end to worrying winless streaks.
Match preview
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Last week, a fourth defeat in five games continued Atalanta's descent towards mid-table mediocrity, and their whole season appears to be coming apart at the seams.
Going down 2-1 to a vibrant Verona side was certainly not disastrous in isolation, but another loss on home soil saw the Bergamaschi slip further off the pace in the race for European qualification, and they now sit eighth in the Serie A standings - five points adrift of Lazio, who occupy sixth place.
In all, La Dea have suffered nine defeats in the league this season, and the last time they recorded more in a single campaign was four years ago, when they ultimately finished seventh.
That was a palatable result at a time when Gian Piero Gasperini was still embedding his principles at the Lombardy club, but recent successes have raised the bar for the current squad.
Therefore, it would be unacceptable for Atalanta to lose a fourth consecutive Serie A game for the first time since Gasperini's appointment in 2016, which raises the stakes for their trip to Veneto on Saturday.
Their best chance of accessing Europe again had recently boiled down to winning this year's Europa League, but losing out to Leipzig in the quarter-finals earlier this month means they must get back on track with a win at the Penzo.
Since the beginning of February, Atalanta have lost three of their four away fixtures in Serie A - as many as in their previous 56 matches on the road - but they have generally performed much better outside of Bergamo this term, and will face opponents in desperate disarray.
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Following last week's reverse at Fiorentina, 19th-placed Venezia have lost their last seven Serie A matches, and only once before have they recorded eight consecutive defeats in a single top-flight season - way back in 1949.
Admittedly, their presence at the elite level has been fairly infrequent since then, but Paolo Zanetti's current crop are fast losing grip on their place at Calcio's top table.
The Arancioneroverdi languish six points adrift of safety, as they attempt to avoid an immediate return to Serie B, though they do retain a game in hand on 17th-placed Cagliari.
Having gone 11 league matches without a home win, Venezia's meagre points tally since the turn of the year stands at just five; with goals a particular problem for Zanetti's timid side.
They have now scored only once in their last five outings: Thomas Henry's late equaliser against Udinese, which was subsequently rendered immaterial due to conceding a stoppage-time goal. Somehow, that trend must end if the Lagunari are to stay afloat in Serie A when the campaign concludes next month.
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Team News
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Last week's suspension saw Venezia midfielder Ethan Ampadu replaced by Tanner Tessman, who was surprisingly recalled to the side, but the Wales international should return to the hosts' engine room on Saturday.
Third-choice goalkeeper Niki Maenpaa continues between the posts, as both Sergio Romero and Luca Lezzerini remain sidelined by injury, while Tyronne Ebuehi and Antonio Vacca are ruled out too. Meanwhile, suspended pair Sofian Kiyine and Ridgeciano Haps will both be unavailable to Paolo Zanetti.
Having been Venezia's only goalscorer since the end of February, French forward Thomas Henry is all but guaranteed a start up front.
Atalanta are also expected to have a handful of absentees this weekend, as Remo Freuler and captain Rafael Toloi are major doubts, and Ruslan Malinovskyi - who bizarrely suffered a knee injury when rugby-tackling an opponent against Verona - is also set to sit out the visit to Veneto.
Giuseppe Pezzella hopes to overcome a thigh problem to be involved, though, and his fellow wing-back Joakim Maehle is closing in on a comeback but may have to wait for Wednesday's game with Torino.
Up front, Colombian strikers Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel - the latter of whom has played a direct role in at least one goal in each of his last seven Serie A matches against promoted sides - will vie for the lone striker's role, with Jeremie Boga set to provide support from behind.
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Mateju, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Ullmann; Busio, Ampadu, Crnigoj; Aramu, Henry, Okereke
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Scalvini, Demiral, Palomino; Hateboer, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Zappacosta; Pasalic, Boga; Zapata
We say: Venezia 0-1 Atalanta BC
Both teams have been short of ideas in the final third over recent weeks, and that promises a low-scoring affair by the lagoon.
More effective on their travels throughout the campaign, Atalanta can finally eke out a win and start to rebuild their confidence ahead of Serie A's final furlong.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 68.5%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 13.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Venezia win it was 2-1 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
