Werder Bremen take on Hertha Berlin at the Weserstadion on Saturday afternoon in the opening round of Bundesliga fixtures.
The hosts narrowly avoided relegation to the second tier last season, while a mixed finish to 2019-20 saw Hertha finish in the top half.
Match preview
© Reuters
Bremen finished 16th in the 18-team division last season and had to come through a relegation playoff with Heidenheim in July, doing so by the narrowest of margins.
A dramatic end to the second leg, after the opening 90 minutes finished goalless, saw the Green-Whites retain their top-flight status with a 2-2 away goals win.
Florian Kohfeldt's side are among the favourites to finish in the bottom three this time around, too, even if they have hit a bit of good form during the summer.
Since holding off Heidenheim in that aforementioned playoff, Bremen have won six friendlies out of six and were 2-0 victors at Carl Zeiss Jena in the DFB-Pokal last weekend.
Bremen are also unbeaten in their last 13 competitive games against Hertha, which is their best streak against any other current Bundesliga side.
© Reuters
Unlike this weekend's opponents, Hertha were unable to come through their first-round cup tie as they suffered a shock 5-4 defeat to Eintracht Braunschweig in a thrilling match.
The cup was down the list of priorities for Bruno Labbadia, but exiting in round one is disappointing all the same and a far better performance is needed here.
After a positive start to Labbadia's tenure post-lockdown, when winning three and drawing one of their first four matches back, Hertha have since lost eight of their last 10.
That run includes pre-season friendlies, though the loss of form is surely of concern for the capital club if they are to match or better last term's 10th-placed finish.
A trip to the Weserstadion is not a bad way to kick things off, mind, as Bremen won just two home games in the whole of last season - the joint-worst record in the division.
Werder Bremen form (all competitions): W
Hertha Berlin form (all competitions): L
Team News
© Reuters
Milot Rashica has been linked with a move away this summer and will play no part this weekend because of a knee problem.
Centre-back Omer Toprak is another absentee, opening up a spot for Milos Veljkovic to slot in alongside Niklas Moisander.
Exciting prospect Tahith Chong has joined Bremen on loan and is expected to make his Bundesliga debut here after scoring off the bench against fourth-tier Carl Zeiss Jena.
One positive to come out of Hertha's cup exit was Matheus Cunha and Dodi Lukebakio finding the net, with both men expected to start here just off January signing Krzysztof Piatek.
French midfielder Lucas Tousart is pushing for a first appearance in the German top flight, meanwhile, and fellow newbie Jhon Cordoba is also in contention.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Veljkovic, Moisander, Augustinsson; Eggestein, Erras, Klaassen; Sargent, Selke, Chong
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Zeefuik, Boyata, Torunarigha, Plattenhardt; Tousart, Darida; Lukebakio, Cunha, Mittelstadt; Piatek
We say: Werder Bremen 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Werder's home record last season was terrible, but Hertha also picked up just one point from their last four away matches in 2019-20.
Labbadia's side finished 10 points better off than their opponents last time out, though we are backing this one to finish in a draw on the basis of the sides' form over the summer.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
