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World Cup
Japan national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Sep 5, 2024 at 11.35am UK
National Olympic Stadium
China national football team

Japan
7 - 0
China

Endo (12'), Mitoma (45+2'), Minamino (52', 58'), Ito (77'), Maeda (87'), Kubo (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Yang (18'), Zhang (39'), Carvalho (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and China, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Japan 5-0 Syria
Tuesday, June 11 at 11.14am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

China

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: South Korea 1-0 China
Tuesday, June 11 at 12pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Japan 3-0 China

 Given their rivalry, China will hope to pose some sort of a threat to their more illustrious hosts. However, this should be one-way traffic for the regular World Cup participants, who will expect to record another clean sheet. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 67.79%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for China had a probability of 13.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.

Result
JapanDrawChina
67.79% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13) 18.62% (0.073999999999998 0.07) 13.59% (0.055000000000001 0.06)
Both teams to score 52.48% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.21% (-0.207 -0.21)39.78% (0.205 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.86% (-0.21400000000001 -0.21)62.14% (0.21400000000001 0.21)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.23% (-0.091000000000008 -0.09)10.77% (0.09 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.23% (-0.20200000000001 -0.2)34.77% (0.201 0.2)
China Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.81% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)41.18% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.28% (-0.044 -0.04)77.72% (0.042999999999992 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Japan 67.79%
    China 13.59%
    Draw 18.62%
JapanDrawChina
2-0 @ 11.01% (0.02 0.02)
1-0 @ 9.88% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.77% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.18% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.26% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 4.56% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
4-1 @ 4.04% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.22% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.03% (-0.019 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.8% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.79% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 4.24%
Total : 67.79%
1-1 @ 8.77% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 4.44% (0.042 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.33% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 18.62%
0-1 @ 3.94% (0.032 0.03)
1-2 @ 3.89% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.75% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.28% (-0.002 -0)
1-3 @ 1.15% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.58%
Total : 13.59%

How you voted: Japan vs China

Japan
81.8%
Draw
6.8%
China
11.4%
44
Head to Head
Jan 27, 2022 10.01am
Third Round
Japan
2-0
China
Osako (13' pen.), Ito (61')

Lei (35')
> Preview
Sep 7, 2021 4pm
Third Round
China
0-1
Japan

Xi (67'), Aloisio (69'), Wang (81')
Osako (40')
Ito (57')
> Preview
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