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World Cup
Uzbekistan national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 10, 2024 at 3pm UK
Milliy Stadion
Iran national football team

Uzbekistan
vs.
Iran

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Uzbekistan and Iran, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uzbekistan

All competitions
Last Game: Kyrgyzstan 2-3 Uzbekistan
Tuesday, September 10 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Uzbekistan vs. UAE
Tuesday, October 15 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Iran

All competitions
Last Game: UAE 0-1 Iran
Tuesday, September 10 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Iran vs. Qatar
Tuesday, October 15 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Uzbekistan 1-2 Iran

 Drawing each of their last two competitive meetings, we are expecting a hard-fought affair between the Group A pacesetters in Tashkent on Thursday night. Iran's record since the arrival of head coach Ghalenoei in March 2023 has been exceptional, and we envisage Team Melli earning a narrow victory in Uzbekistan to leapfrog the hosts in the section standings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.76%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
UzbekistanDrawIran
33.32% (2.644 2.64) 28.82% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09) 37.86% (-2.554 -2.55)
Both teams to score 45.21% (0.912 0.91)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.66% (0.806 0.81)61.33% (-0.809 -0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.75% (0.596 0.6)81.24% (-0.59899999999999 -0.6)
Uzbekistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.77% (2.358 2.36)34.23% (-2.361 -2.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.07% (2.45 2.45)70.92% (-2.452 -2.45)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.74% (-1.121 -1.12)31.26% (1.12 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.39% (-1.325 -1.33)67.61% (1.322 1.32)
Score Analysis
    Uzbekistan 33.32%
    Iran 37.86%
    Draw 28.8%
UzbekistanDrawIran
1-0 @ 11.47% (0.39 0.39)
2-1 @ 7.15% (0.466 0.47)
2-0 @ 6.15% (0.575 0.58)
3-1 @ 2.56% (0.315 0.32)
3-0 @ 2.2% (0.329 0.33)
3-2 @ 1.49% (0.142 0.14)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 33.32%
1-1 @ 13.33% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 10.69% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-2 @ 4.16% (0.149 0.15)
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 28.8%
0-1 @ 12.44% (-0.78 -0.78)
1-2 @ 7.76% (-0.218 -0.22)
0-2 @ 7.23% (-0.697 -0.7)
1-3 @ 3.01% (-0.182 -0.18)
0-3 @ 2.8% (-0.367 -0.37)
2-3 @ 1.61% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3%
Total : 37.86%

How you voted: Uzbekistan vs Iran

Uzbekistan
22.5%
Draw
18.8%
Iran
58.8%
80
Head to Head
Jun 11, 2024 6pm
Second Round
Iran
0-0
Uzbekistan
Hardani (90')
Khusanov (17')
> Preview
Nov 21, 2023 1pm
Second Round
Uzbekistan
2-2
Iran
Urunov (52'), Sergeev (83')
Aliqulov (3'), Katanec (4'), Sayfiyev (76')
Rezaeian (14'), Taremi (38')
Kanani (48'), Karimi (80')
Oct 8, 2020 2pm
Friendlies 1
Uzbekistan
1-2
Iran
Shomurodov (53')
Tukhtakhujaev (77')
Azmoun (44'), Taremi (51' pen.)
(86')
Sep 11, 2018 4pm
International Friendlies
Uzbekistan
0-1
Iran

Sayfiyev (43')
Torabi (67')
Mohammadi (93')
May 19, 2018 5.15pm
International Friendlies
Iran
1-0
Uzbekistan
Cheshmi (17')
Hosseini (90')
rhs 2.0
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