Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz
Libertad1 - 1Ameliano
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Club Libertad 2-0 Sportivo Ameliano
While Sportivo Ameliano came through the group stages with flying colours, their form since then has been dismal, particularly in attack, where they have failed to score in four of their last five games. Libertad have not been at their absolute best in recent weeks either, but their record against this opponent is hard to ignore, and we feel they will secure a first-leg lead in this tie fairly comfortably. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 58.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 18.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.14%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Sportivo Ameliano win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Club Libertad | Draw | Sportivo Ameliano |
58.7% ( -0.06) | 23.1% ( 0.08) | 18.2% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 48.4% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
