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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 76.05%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 10.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-3 with a probability of 8.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-3 (7.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.05%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 2-1 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
10.69% ( -0.23) | 13.26% ( 0.34) | 76.05% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 65.44% ( -2.82) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
79.83% ( -2.55) | 20.17% ( 2.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
61.66% ( -3.72) | 38.33% ( 3.72) |
FC Volendam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.49% ( -2.55) | 31.51% ( 2.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.1% ( -3.06) | 67.9% ( 3.06) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.54% ( -0.53) | 4.46% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
81.68% ( -1.68) | 18.32% ( 1.68) |
Score Analysis |
FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.36% Total : 10.69% | 1-1 @ 5.05% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.27) Other @ 0.47% Total : 13.26% | 1-3 @ 8.14% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0.46) 0-3 @ 7.05% ( 0.62) 0-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.84) 1-4 @ 6.33% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 5.48% ( 0.28) 2-3 @ 4.7% ( -0.24) 0-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.69) 1-5 @ 3.94% ( -0.24) 2-4 @ 3.65% ( -0.34) 0-5 @ 3.41% ( 0.04) 2-5 @ 2.27% ( -0.32) 1-6 @ 2.04% ( -0.21) 0-6 @ 1.77% ( -0.05) 3-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.24) 2-6 @ 1.18% ( -0.22) 1-7 @ 0.91% ( -0.14) Other @ 4.78% Total : 76.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 46 |
2 | Ajax | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 42 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 39 |
4 | Feyenoord | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 28 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 |
9 | Heerenveen | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
10 | Willem II | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 22 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 22 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 20 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 17 |
15 | Heracles | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 15 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 10 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 7 |
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