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Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Derby logo

Exeter
0 - 3
Derby


Aitchison (49'), Carroll (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bird (24'), Mendez-Laing (52'), Barkhuizen (62')
Mendez-Laing (26'), Adams (43'), Cashin (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wigan 1-2 Exeter
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Derby County

Promotion-chasing Derby are set to go up against an in-form Exeter side, but after winning their last two head-to-head meetings, we think that the Rams will do enough to claim all three points on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
19.84% (0.184 0.18) 23% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07) 57.16% (-0.10400000000001 -0.1)
Both teams to score 51.48% (0.527 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.08% (0.554 0.55)47.93% (-0.55 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.9% (0.508 0.51)70.1% (-0.503 -0.5)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.67% (0.517 0.52)38.33% (-0.511 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.91% (0.492 0.49)75.09% (-0.486 -0.49)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.48% (0.16200000000001 0.16)16.53% (-0.157 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.73% (0.28899999999999 0.29)46.27% (-0.284 -0.28)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 19.84%
    Derby County 57.15%
    Draw 22.99%
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.07% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-1 @ 5.24% (0.054 0.05)
2-0 @ 2.91% (0.015 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.68% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.044 0.04)
3-0 @ 0.93% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 19.84%
1-1 @ 10.93% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.073 0.07)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.99%
0-1 @ 11.4% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 10.26% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 9.84% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.16% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 5.91% (0.042 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.83% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 2.77% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.66% (0.033 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.28% (0.033 0.03)
0-5 @ 1% (0.003 0)
1-5 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 57.15%

How you voted: Exeter vs Derby

Exeter City
15.8%
Draw
13.2%
Derby County
71.1%
38
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Derby
2-0
Exeter
Mendez-Laing (30'), Washington (79')
Hourihane (34'), Sibley (55')

Watts (62')
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Exeter
1-2
Derby
Sparkes (78')
McGoldrick (52', 76')
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
0-0
Exeter
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
RCheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030


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