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Charlton Athletic
League One | Gameweek 31
Feb 3, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Valley
Derby logo

Charlton
0 - 1
Derby


Ramsay (70'), Kanu (82')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mendez-Laing (31')
Adams (41'), Cashin (51'), Sibley (68'), Vickers (90+1'), Hourihane (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Charlton Athletic and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Blackpool 1-1 Charlton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

We said: Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County

Derby have tended to enjoy themselves on their travels this season, and we think that they will produce another successful away performance when they face a Charlton side low on confidence following an 11-game winless league run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Charlton AthleticDrawDerby County
25.13% (0.607 0.61) 22.76% (0.131 0.13) 52.11% (-0.737 -0.74)
Both teams to score 59.34% (0.224 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.15% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)40.85% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.76% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)63.24% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.44% (0.47799999999999 0.48)29.56% (-0.476 -0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.41% (0.578 0.58)65.59% (-0.57600000000001 -0.58)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.24% (-0.255 -0.25)15.76% (0.258 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.12% (-0.477 -0.48)44.88% (0.479 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Charlton Athletic 25.13%
    Derby County 52.11%
    Draw 22.76%
Charlton AthleticDrawDerby County
2-1 @ 6.39% (0.115 0.12)
1-0 @ 5.68% (0.077 0.08)
2-0 @ 3.46% (0.092 0.09)
3-1 @ 2.6% (0.08 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.053 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.41% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 25.13%
1-1 @ 10.49% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.91% (0.053999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.66% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.76%
1-2 @ 9.69% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-1 @ 8.61% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
0-2 @ 7.95% (-0.138 -0.14)
1-3 @ 5.97% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
0-3 @ 4.9% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-3 @ 3.64% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.76% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-4 @ 2.26% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-4 @ 1.68% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-5 @ 1.02% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 52.11%

How you voted: Charlton vs Derby

Charlton Athletic
30.4%
Draw
4.3%
Derby County
65.2%
23
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-0
Charlton
McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 12
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
Apr 16, 2016 3pm
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Fox (91')
Russell (60')
Butterfield (66'), Keogh (81'), Christie (91')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
RCheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030


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