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Peterborough United
League One | Gameweek 41
Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK
Weston Homes Stadium
Carlisle United

Peterborough
1 - 3
Carlisle

Randall (61')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mellish (27', 49', 58')
Ellis (7'), Mellish (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Peterborough United and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage
Saturday, March 23 at 3pm in League One

We said: Peterborough United 2-0 Carlisle United

Peterborough come into this game with almost triple the points that Carlisle have picked up this season and will be strong favourites to take all three points from the match as they continue their push for the automatic promotion places. While Carlisle were able to gain a point from the reverse fixture of this tie thanks to a 96th-minute equaliser from Jordan Gibson, they have failed to win on Peterborough's home soil since the 1999-2000 season, losing four out of five meetings since then. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 12.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-2 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Peterborough UnitedDrawCarlisle United
70.6% (-0.31 -0.31) 17.19% (0.165 0.16) 12.22% (0.144 0.14)
Both teams to score 53.51% (-0.162 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.61% (-0.43500000000001 -0.44)36.39% (0.432 0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.48% (-0.476 -0.48)58.52% (0.474 0.47)
Peterborough United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.82% (-0.185 -0.19)9.18% (0.182 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.9% (-0.437 -0.44)31.1% (0.435 0.44)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.92% (-0.061 -0.06)41.08% (0.058 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.37% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)77.62% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Peterborough United 70.59%
    Carlisle United 12.22%
    Draw 17.19%
Peterborough UnitedDrawCarlisle United
2-0 @ 10.75% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.01% (0.117 0.12)
3-0 @ 8.56% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.62% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-0 @ 5.11% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-1 @ 4.55% (-0.062 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.39% (-0.023 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.44% (-0.05 -0.05)
5-1 @ 2.17% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-2 @ 2.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
6-0 @ 0.97% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-2 @ 0.97% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 70.59%
1-1 @ 8.01% (0.091 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.77% (0.08 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 17.19%
1-2 @ 3.56% (0.035 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.36% (0.066 0.07)
0-2 @ 1.49% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.26%
1-3 @ 1.06% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 12.22%

How you voted: Peterborough vs Carlisle

Peterborough United
78.6%
Draw
17.9%
Carlisle United
3.6%
28
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Carlisle
1-1
Peterborough
Gibson (90+6')
Back (76'), Moxon (90+3')
Edwards (72')
Nov 8, 2014 3pm
First Round
Peterborough
2-1
Carlisle
Burgess (42', 91')
Vassell (45')
Asamoah (8')
Apr 21, 2014 3pm
Peterborough
4-1
Carlisle
Washington (14'), Assombalonga (55' pen., 73' pen.), Bostwick (90')
Baldwin (19'), Nugent (53')
Miller (63')
Pickford (73')
Dec 29, 2013 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Peterborough
Amoo (72', 73')
Noble (19'), Buaben (42'), O'Hanlon (60')
Tomlin (61')
Assombalonga (49'), Swanson (68'), Little (90'), Tomlin (90')
Ephraim (52')
Mar 12, 2011 3pm
Peterborough
6-0
Carlisle
Bennett (77'), Rowe (2'), Boyd (45', 83'), Mackail-Smith (24'), Ball (90')

Curran (41'), Cooper (45'), Berrett (90')
Cooper (63')
rhs 2.0
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