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League One
Peterborough United
League One | Gameweek 41
Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK
Weston Homes Stadium
Carlisle United

Peterborough
1 - 3
Carlisle

Randall (61')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mellish (27', 49', 58')
Ellis (7'), Mellish (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Peterborough United and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peterborough United

All competitions
Last Game: Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage
Saturday, March 23 at 3pm in League One

We said: Peterborough United 2-0 Carlisle United

 Peterborough come into this game with almost triple the points that Carlisle have picked up this season and will be strong favourites to take all three points from the match as they continue their push for the automatic promotion places. While Carlisle were able to gain a point from the reverse fixture of this tie thanks to a 96th-minute equaliser from Jordan Gibson, they have failed to win on Peterborough's home soil since the 1999-2000 season, losing four out of five meetings since then. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 12.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-2 (3.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Peterborough UnitedDrawCarlisle United
70.6% (-0.31 -0.31) 17.19% (0.165 0.16) 12.22% (0.144 0.14)
Both teams to score 53.51% (-0.162 -0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.61% (-0.43500000000001 -0.44)36.39% (0.432 0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.48% (-0.476 -0.48)58.52% (0.474 0.47)
Peterborough United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.82% (-0.185 -0.19)9.18% (0.182 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.9% (-0.437 -0.44)31.1% (0.435 0.44)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.92% (-0.061 -0.06)41.08% (0.058 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.37% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)77.62% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Peterborough United 70.59%
    Carlisle United 12.22%
    Draw 17.19%
Peterborough UnitedDrawCarlisle United
2-0 @ 10.75% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.01% (0.117 0.12)
3-0 @ 8.56% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.62% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-0 @ 5.11% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-1 @ 4.55% (-0.062 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.39% (-0.023 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.44% (-0.05 -0.05)
5-1 @ 2.17% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-2 @ 2.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
6-0 @ 0.97% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-2 @ 0.97% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 70.59%
1-1 @ 8.01% (0.091 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.77% (0.08 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 17.19%
1-2 @ 3.56% (0.035 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.36% (0.066 0.07)
0-2 @ 1.49% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.26%
1-3 @ 1.06% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 12.22%

How you voted: Peterborough vs Carlisle

Peterborough United
78.6%
Draw
17.9%
Carlisle United
3.6%
28
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Carlisle
1-1
Peterborough
Gibson (90+6')
Back (76'), Moxon (90+3')
Edwards (72')
> Preview
Nov 8, 2014 3pm
First Round
Peterborough
2-1
Carlisle
Burgess (42', 91')
Vassell (45')
Asamoah (8')
Apr 21, 2014 3pm
Peterborough
4-1
Carlisle
Washington (14'), Assombalonga (55' pen., 73' pen.), Bostwick (90')
Baldwin (19'), Nugent (53')
Miller (63')
Pickford (73')
Dec 29, 2013 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Peterborough
Amoo (72', 73')
Noble (19'), Buaben (42'), O'Hanlon (60')
Tomlin (61')
Assombalonga (49'), Swanson (68'), Little (90'), Tomlin (90')
Ephraim (52')
> Match Report
Mar 12, 2011 3pm
Peterborough
6-0
Carlisle
Bennett (77'), Rowe (2'), Boyd (45', 83'), Mackail-Smith (24'), Ball (90')

Curran (41'), Cooper (45'), Berrett (90')
Cooper (63')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
22Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814
> League One Full Table


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