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Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 36
Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Reading logo

Carlisle
1 - 3
Reading

Mellish (71')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Smith (17'), Knibbs (36', 57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Reading 2-3 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Reading

Although Carlisle claimed all three points in Tuesday's away clash with Burton, they have lost each of their last four home matches, and after falling to a 5-1 defeat to Reading in the reverse fixture, we think that the Cumbrians will come up short in Saturday's home outing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
31.67% (0.067 0.07) 25.52% (0.026999999999997 0.03) 42.8% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 54.75% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.97% (-0.089000000000006 -0.09)49.03% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.89% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08)71.11% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.93% (0.0010000000000048 0)29.07%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.02% (0.0020000000000024 0)64.98%
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.19% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)22.81% (0.086000000000002 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.48% (-0.124 -0.12)56.51% (0.125 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 31.67%
    Reading 42.8%
    Draw 25.52%
Carlisle UnitedDrawReading
1-0 @ 8.19% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.48% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.06% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-0 @ 2.08% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 31.67%
1-1 @ 12.1% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.63% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0039999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.52%
0-1 @ 9.8% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.24% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.41% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.63% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.32% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 42.8%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Reading

Carlisle United
0.0%
Draw
30.0%
Reading
70.0%
10
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 20
Reading
5-1
Carlisle
Lavelle (26' og.), Knibbs (32', 39'), Wing (78'), Azeez (83')
Dorsett (53')
Plange (29')
Armer (33')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth442713475393694
2Derby CountyDerby442681075373886
3Bolton WanderersBolton442411981483383
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough432481184562880
5Barnsley4421121179601975
6Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4421101376542273
7Lincoln CityLincoln4419141163372671
8Blackpool4420101460431770
9Stevenage4418131354441067
10Leyton Orient441711165053-362
11Northampton TownNorthampton44178195563-859
12Wycombe WanderersWycombe431513155553258
13Exeter CityExeter441610184358-1558
14Bristol Rovers44169195264-1257
15Wigan AthleticWigan441810165955456
16Charlton AthleticCharlton441119146363052
17Reading441511186365-250
18Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury44138233363-3047
19Cambridge UnitedCambridge431210213859-2146
20Burton Albion441110233662-2643
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham43118243761-2441
22Port Vale441010244172-3140
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood44813234572-2737
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4479284076-3630


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