Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
Montpellier3 - 2Auxerre
We said: Montpellier HSC 1-1 Auxerre
Both sides have struggled in the early part of the 2024-25 Ligue 1 season, and neither will want to extend their losing streak to four matches, which suggests this match may end in a cautious 1-1 draw. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 36.74% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Auxerre |
37.26% ( 0.28) | 25.99% ( 0.06) | 36.74% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 54.27% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
