We said: New York City FC 2-1 Inter Miami
Bringing back two veterans familiar with the New York way of playing should improve the Pigeons' across the board, while we believe Talles Magno could be due for a big match.
The Herons have got the job done, but they have still allowed some quality scoring opportunities, while playing on the road is not their strong suit.
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Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 17.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 1-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 1-2 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.