Real Madrid will be bidding to qualify for the last-16 stage of the Copa del Rey when they take on Alcoyano at Campo Municipal El Collao on Wednesday night.
Los Blancos will enter the contest off the back of a shock 1-0 loss at Getafe in La Liga, while third-tier side Alcoyano suffered a 1-0 defeat to Linense in their last league contest on December 18.
Match preview
Alcoyano, who operate in the third tier of Spanish football, reached the last-16 stage of last season's Copa del Rey, which proved to be their best ever performance in the competition.
Deportivo are now bidding to reach the round of 16 once again, although they have been handed arguably the toughest draw of all, with Real Madrid their opponents in the last-32 stage of the competition.
The lower-league side recorded a famous 2-1 victory over Los Blancos at the same stage of last season's tournament, though, with the hosts netting an extra-time winner to secure a huge result.
Alcoyano have previously played in La Liga on four occasions but have not been present in the top flight since 1950-51, when they were relegated to the second tier courtesy of a 15th-place finish.
Vicente Parras's side have beaten Badajoz and Levante to advance to the third round of this season's competition, but they lost their last league game at Linense on December 18, which left them in 11th position in their domestic table, level on points with Real Madrid Castilla.
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Real Madrid, meanwhile, are the third-most successful side in the history of the Copa del Rey, lifting the trophy on 19 occasions, but they have not been victorious since the 2013-14 season.
The Spanish Cup is again third on the team's list of priorities this season, with La Liga and Champions League more important to the club, but Ancelotti will be desperate to secure as much silverware as possible.
As mentioned, Real Madrid, who went down 1-0 at Getafe in La Liga on Sunday, lost their last Copa del Rey contest away to Alcoyano last season, and the capital giants will certainly be wary of suffering another upset here.
Los Blancos have enjoyed an impressive first half to the 2021-22 campaign, though, sitting top of La Liga, eight points clear of second-placed Sevilla, while they progressed to the last-16 stage of the Champions League as section winners, which saw them drawn against Paris Saint-Germain.
A busy start to this month, meanwhile, will see Ancelotti's side take on Valencia in the league on January 8 before tackling Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup on January 12, and the team will be desperate to bounce back from the loss at Getafe, which ended a 15-game unbeaten run in all competitions.
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Team News
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Alcoyano's side is expected to be similar to the one that took to the field for the Copa del Rey contest against Levante last month, with Mourad, who netted twice, again featuring in the final third.
Head coach Parras will be without Angel Lopez following his red card in the second-round contest, but the home side are otherwise in good shape in terms of their first-team squad.
Dani Vega is likely to get the nod alongside Mourad in the final third, while Javi Anton and Javier Garcia could again feature in the wide areas for the third-tier outfit.
Real Madrid are again expected to be without the services of Dani Carvajal through injury for this match, while Vinicius Junior, Luka Jovic and Gareth Bale are all likely to be unavailable following recent positive coronavirus tests, although Vinicius is now believed to be testing negative.
Head coach Ancelotti will make wholesale changes to his starting side, with the likes of Andriy Lunin, Jesus Vallejo, Antonio Blanco and Mariano Diaz set to be given rare opportunities to impress.
There could also be a start in the final third of the field for 19-year-old Peter Gonzalez, but there is still expected to be plenty of experience in the shape of Lucas Vazquez, Nacho, Marcelo and Eden Hazard.
Alcoyano possible starting lineup:
Juan; Lillo, Blanco, Ferriz, Carbonell; Anton, I Garcia, Juanan, J Garcia; Mourad, Vega
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Lunin; Vazquez, Nacho, Vallejo, Marcelo; Camavinga, Blanco, Valverde; Hazard, Mariano, Peter
We say: Alcoyano 0-2 Real Madrid
Alcoyano demonstrated last season that they are capable of beating Real Madrid, but it is very difficult to see the same outcome this season. Los Blancos will be keen to put the Getafe result behind them, and we are expecting the La Liga leaders to book their spot in the next round of the competition in routine fashion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 70.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Alcoyano had a probability of 10.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.79%) and 0-3 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.86%), while for an Alcoyano win it was 1-0 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
