We said: Lazio 3-0 Monza
Lazio can end a rare Stadio Olimpico slump with victory this weekend, when their opponents will turn up more in hope than expectation.
Beset by injuries and having lost important players in the transfer window, modest Monza are unlikely to trouble a team with top-four ambitions.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Monza had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
1.66) 
-1.69) 
