The first Baden-Schwaben-Derby of the season takes place on matchday three of the Bundesliga season on Saturday afternoon, as Stuttgart welcome rivals Freiburg to the Mercedes Benz Arena.
The two teams endured mixed fortunes last weekend but all of that is put to one side as they look to earn the bragging rights in the Baden-Wurttemberg region.
Match preview
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After the highs of thrashing Greuther Furth 5-1 in the opening game of the new Bundesliga season, Stuttgart were brought crashing back down to earth last weekend, as they were the side on the receiving end of a hammering this time - a 4-0 defeat away to RB Leipzig.
Manager Pellegrino Matarazzo will be keen to erase the memories of last week quickly, and this weekend he has the perfect opportunity to do that by beating their local rivals.
Matarazzo only seems to know success with his side during his tenure so far. After guiding Stuttgart to promotion to the Bundesliga in 2019-20, he followed that up with an impressive ninth-place finish in their first season back in the top flight last campaign.
Prior to the thumping of Greuther Furth in the first league game of the season, Stuttgart had beaten BFC Dynamo 6-0 in the first round of the DFB-Pokal.
Therefore, Matarazzo's men certainly know how to find the back of the net this season already, and will be hoping that the defeat to title challengers Leipzig was just a small blip in their campaign.
Now they will look ahead to getting revenge over their rivals on Saturday, as they were defeated by them in both league meetings last season, although they did manage a 1-0 win in the DFB-Pokal encounter.
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Whilst their hosts come into the derby off the back of a thumping defeat, Freiburg arrive at the Mercedes Benz Arena on Saturday in high spirits after a victory over title hopefuls Borussia Dortmund.
Despite seeing very little possession, Freiburg were clinical in front of goal and managed a 2-1 win thanks to goals from Vincenzo Grifo and Roland Sallai.
A strong low defensive block working collectively as a unit was the key to that win and the impressive defensive performance might be needed at times on Saturday against the attacking setup of their rivals.
Prior to last week's win, Freiburg opened the new Bundesliga campaign with a battling 0-0 draw away to Arminia Bielefeld.
Added to the 1-0 win in the DFB-Pokal earlier in the month, these results mean the visitors have begun their season with an unbeaten run, and have only conceded one goal in the process.
Christian Streich's men will now look ahead to the weekend as an opportunity to continue that unbeaten start and potentially repeat the double they achieved over their rivals last season.
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Team News
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Although Pellegrino Matarazzo would potentially look to rotate his side a little after such a thumping defeat last weekend, he will struggle to be able to do that with a large number of players unavailable for selection.
Main striker Sasa Kalajdzic is their biggest miss, with the Austrian being ruled out until next month with a shoulder injury. Hamadi Al Ghaddioui will continue to lead the line in his absence.
In addition to Kalajdzic, Stuttgart remain without Naouirou Ahamada (ankle), Momo Cisse (foot), Lilian Egloff (foot), Chris Fuhrich (collarbone), Atakan Karazor (thigh), Mohamed Sankoh (knee) and Silas Katompa Mvumpa, whilst Orel Mangala is a doubt due to a thigh injury.
Meanwhile, the visitors have an almost full selection of players at their disposal for the short trip.
Nishan Burkart is carrying a knock and Nils Petersen has a knee problem, which sees them doubtful to face their rivals, whilst Jonathan Schmid may not be included.
Therefore, Christian Streich is likely to stick with the same starting lineup that achieved the impressive victory over Dortmund last weekend.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Massimo, Klement, Endo, Sosa; Forster, Klimowicz; Al Ghaddioui
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Sallai, Keitel, Hofler, Grifo; Holer, Jeong
We say: Stuttgart 2-1 Freiburg
We believe this could be a tight match that is very hard to call between two rivals with different fortunes last week. The sides are fairly evenly matched but with home advantage and the fans returning to back them in the derby, we say Stuttgart will just edge out Freiburg in this one.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 46.46%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
