Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Dusseldorf win with a probability of 56.83%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 20.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Dusseldorf would win this match.