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Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Benjamin Bonzi - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Moselle Open final between Cameron Norrie and Benjamin Bonzi, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aiming to cap off a troublesome year with a sixth ATP Tour title, Great Britain's Cameron Norrie takes on home favourite Benjamin Bonzi in Saturday's Moselle Open final.

The former Wimbledon semi-finalist overcame Corentin Moutet in an explosive semi-final showdown on Friday, before his opponent - who came through qualifying - sank Alex Michelsen.


Match preview

Cameron Norrie pictured on October 22, 2024© Imago

From a star-studded main-draw cast including Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune and Grigor Dimitrov, this year's Moselle Open final will be contended by the world number 57 and world number 124, thanks to early exits and withdrawals all over the shop.

Bidding to force his way back into the ATP's elite after a disrupted and injury-affected year, former British number one Norrie won his first top-level match since July with his fiery success over Roberto Carballes Baena in round one, where his cries of "Vamos!" did not go down well with the Spaniard.

A penny for the thoughts of an increasingly riled-up Moutet when Norrie let out cry after cry of "Allez!" in Friday's semi-final, no doubt hoping to get inside the head of the increasingly volatile Frenchman, and such tactics paid off in a 6-2 7-6[5] win for the former British number one.

Norrie counter-acted some cheeky underarm serves from Moutet by winning 75% of points on his second serve and converting four of the five break points that he managed to fashion against the 25-year-old, while also firing twice the Frenchman's amount of winners with 28.

Now guaranteed to return to the top 50 thanks to his exploits in Metz, Norrie's championship match on Saturday will mark his 15th ATP Tour final - and his first since winning the Rio Open in February 2023 - but no matter the result, his late autumnal revival bodes well for the 2025 season.

Benjamin Bonzi pictured on August 22, 2023© Imago

While three of the four top seeds in Rublev, Dimitrov and Rune withdrew from this year's Moselle Open, second seed Ruud was the victim of a shock loss to qualifier Bonzi, who has since proven that his straight-sets win over the former French Open finalist was no fluke.

Indeed, the world number 124 followed up that 6-4 6-4 upset by eliminating compatriot Quentin Halys in the quarter-finals and fighting back to stun the USA's Alex Michelsen in the semis, even subjecting the eighth seed to a bagel in a 4-6 6-0 7-5 success.

Despite tallying more unforced errors (42) than winners (37) in the two-hour slog, the big-serving Frenchman fired nine aces past Michelsen and converted his fifth match point to make it 20 wins from 21 contests across ATP Tour and Challenger level.

After dropping out of the top 150 earlier this year and failing to qualify for any of the main draws at Wimbledon, Roland-Garros or the US Open, reaching the Moselle showpiece is the culmination of a sensational resurgence over the past couple of months for Bonzi, who also reached three consecutive Challenger finals in October and won two of them.

Now, the 28-year-old qualifier endeavours to make it third time lucky in ATP Tour finals, having been overcome by Tallon Griekspoor at the Maharashtra Open in 2023, a matter of weeks before falling to Hubert Hurkacz's supremacy at the Open 13.


Tournament so far

Cameron Norrie:

First round: vs. Roberto Carballes Baena 3-6 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Luca van Assche 3-6 6-3 1-6
Quarter-final: vs. Zizou Bergs 6-3 6-7[6] 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-2 7-6[5]

Benjamin Bonzi:

First round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 7-6[3] 6-3
Second round: vs. Casper Ruud 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Quentin Halys 6-3 7-6[1]
Semi-final: vs. Alex Michelsen 4-6 6-0 7-5


Head To Head

Saturday's Moselle Open final will mark the inaugural meeting between Norrie and Bonzi at the top level, and after facing a fellow leftie in Moutet in the semis, the former now pits his wits against a right-handed foe again.

Over the course of their professional careers, Norrie just has the edge on a few key metrics, including first serves in (65% to 60%), break points won (42% to 39%) and return points won (38% to 36%).


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We say: Norrie to win in three sets

A bit of context must be taken into account regarding Bonzi's triumph over Michelsen, who was evidently struggling with an injury as the match wore on, while Norrie has shown no signs of ailing despite his gruelling three-setters in Metz.

The Briton's mentality has also been top-notch throughout the week - even if he has been rubbing some of his opponents up the wrong way - and he has our backing to close out a difficult 2024 with an uplifting victory and sixth top-level title.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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