Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Western Sydney Wanderers would win this match.